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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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